Climate neutrality possible as early as 2045

According to a study, Germany could be climate neutral five years earlier than planned. For this, however, more speed is needed in terms of climate protection – for example, an earlier coal phase-out, more e-cars and faster expansion of green electricity.

According to a study, climate neutrality in Germany will be possible as early as 2045 – five years earlier than the federal government has set itself the target. This would mean saving almost a billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, according to the report by the organizations Stiftung Klimaneutralität, Agora Energiewende and Agora Verkehrswende. That would be a reduction of 15 percent compared to the current goal of becoming climate neutral in 2050. In order to achieve the faster goal, however, according to the experts, climate protection would have to be accelerated. Technologies such as energy efficiency, renewable energies, electrification and hydrogen would have to be ramped up even faster. In order for Germany to become greenhouse gas neutral as early as 2045, according to the scenario it is specifically necessary for Germany to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2030 – so far the target is 2038 at the latest.

Goal: Faster electrification in traffic

The study authors consider significantly higher expansion rates to be necessary for wind power and photovoltaics. Hydrogen should become increasingly important and after 2040 replace natural gas as the most important energy carrier for controllable electricity generation – in times when there is neither sufficient solar nor wind energy available. Equipping buildings with heat pumps must also be addressed more intensively. According to the experts, one and two-family houses in Germany could, for example, be completely supplied with heat pumps by 2045. In addition, according to the authors, electrification should proceed much faster in the transport sector. As early as 2032, cars with internal combustion engines should no longer be registered. By 2030 there should already be 14 million electric cars in stock. By 2045, almost all vehicles with internal combustion engines would have to be replaced by e-cars. Goods are to be increasingly transported by rail. Personal mobility will change, it is said: “People use public transport or bicycles a lot more, and they walk more.” The study also assumes that the trend of increasing demand for vegetable and synthetic substitutes for meat and milk will continue. Lower animal populations should help to make agriculture climate-neutral.

Change in the “understanding of mobility” required

“Climate neutrality is a race against time,” said the director of the Climate Neutrality Foundation, Rainer Baake. He pointed to the “radical change of course in the United States” under President Joe Biden and emphasized that Germany, too, could get faster on climate protection. “What we need now is the political will to implement it.” The director of Agora Verkehrswende, Christian Hochfeld, admitted that the traffic turnaround in particular was “a major challenge if the structural change required for it is to succeed economically and socially”. The technological change must go hand in hand with a change in the “understanding of mobility” towards fewer private cars and more public and shared means of transport. In order to accelerate climate protection, more must be invested, says Patrick Graichen, director of the Agora Energiewende think tank. The problem is that the approval process for wind turbines, for example, is taking too long – that will have to be faster in the future. The climate organizations intend to submit specific proposals for climate policy measures in the coming weeks. With information from Eva Lamby-Schmitt, ARD capital studio.