► Wen Observer Wang Xiong Chaoran
Previously, the outside world generally predicted that after experiencing the test of the new crown epidemic and affected by the too low base last year, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year will rebound sharply, and the growth rate may reach double digits.
At the same time, foreign media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and Nikkei Asia have also written articles to analyze and forecast China’s first quarter economic data and annual economic growth. And international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund have also been optimistic about the future of China’s economy and raised their expectations for the Chinese economy.
Foreign media are generally concerned about China’s economic growth
As we all know, due to the sudden new crown epidemic, China’s GDP in the first quarter of 2020 has experienced negative growth, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. However, relying on scientific and effective anti-epidemic measures, China quickly contained the epidemic, and the social economy was back on track. The GDP growth in the next three quarters was positive. In 2020, the GDP for the whole year increased by 2.3% compared with the previous year. Therefore, China It became the only major economy in the world that achieved positive economic growth last year.
Now, what makes the outside world more concerned is that 2021 is the beginning year of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. How about China’s economic growth in the first quarter? Can you get a good start? This is not only about China, but also about the global economy, and many foreign media are also very concerned.
Judging from the analysis and reports of major foreign media, they all predict that China’s GDP will achieve substantial growth in the first quarter of this year, and the growth rate may reach double digits.
Reuters pointed out that, driven and affected by events such as strong domestic and foreign demand and continued government support for small and micro enterprises, China’s GDP in the first quarter will rebound sharply compared to when it was hit by the epidemic at the beginning of last year. The report also predicts that this increase will be the strongest since the quarterly data was available in 1992.
On the morning of April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics announced my country’s GDP data for the first quarter. In the first quarter, my country’s GDP was 24,931 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year at comparable prices, an increase of 0.6% from the fourth quarter of 2020, and a year-on-year increase of 0.6% compared to 2019. The growth rate was 10.3% in the first quarter of the year, and the average growth rate was 5.0% in the two years.
In addition to GDP data, China has also performed well in other economic data. In the data released a few days ago, China’s foreign trade import and export also achieved a good start.
April 13, The General Administration of Customs introduced my country’s imports and exports in the first quarter of this year: The total value was 8.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period last year; of which, the trade surplus was 759.29 billion yuan, an increase of 690.6%.
It is worth noting that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic at the beginning of last year, my country’s total import and export value of goods trade in the first quarter of 2020 was 6.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.4% over the same period in 2019; of which, the trade surplus was 98.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 80.6%. In 2019, despite the influence of external factors such as the Sino-US trade conflict, the total value of my country’s foreign trade imports and exports in the first quarter of that year was 7.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the same period in 2018; of which, the trade surplus was 529.67 billion yuan, an increase of 75.2. %.
One thing that cannot be ignored: the cardinal effect
On March 15, Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the specific indicators, last year was a low base of 6.8%, which was reflected in the year-on-year growth rate. In the first quarter, there is likely to be a year-on-year growth or even a sharp rebound.
The first quarter of China’s economy has achieved a good start and substantial growth is gratifying, but after careful analysis, we also need to remain calm and rational.In the report, foreign media also mentioned The “low base” in the same period last year was one of the reasons for the rapid growth of GDP in the first quarter of this year.
Bloomberg specifically talked about the “base effect” in its analysis report. According to the report, in order to better understand the economic situation in the past three months, a good way is to compare the data with the previous quarter (quarter-on-quarter) instead of the same period last year (year-on-year). Some abnormal situations during the blockade and quarantine period are eliminated, and the current economic situation can be “pulled” more accurately.
Bloomberg quoted Goldman Sachs economists as saying that considering that China’s GDP in the first quarter of this year increased significantly compared with the first three months of last year, this means that the economic growth rate in the first quarter was basically the same as that in the previous quarter. It is a dividing line that will show whether the economic recovery will reach its peak at the end of 2020 or will continue to accelerate.
But both Bloomberg and Reuters believe that The road to China’s economic recovery is still positive For example, demand in overseas markets has promoted strong exports, and strong exports have driven economic recovery. Factories are racing to complete overseas orders. These trades will contribute a considerable share of economic output.
The two major economies of China and the United States, the competition has become fierce
As the world’s two largest economies, the economic comparison of China and the United States is naturally a topic that the media likes to focus on. “Nikkei Asia” (Nikkei Asia) analysis reports, mainly based on the situation of interviews with economists and industry insiders.
In a survey of 32 economists conducted by Nikkei Asia, many people hold the view that China may surpass the United States at some point between 2030 and 2034 and become the world’s largest economy. This is mainly due to China’s effective control of the new crown epidemic.
According to the report, two-thirds of economists (12 people) in the 18 samples of valid responses predict that this “transposition” will occur between 2030 and 2034, and 5 people think it will be between 2025 and 2029. In the year, one person chose the year 2035-2039.
Sean Taylor, chief investment officer for the Asia-Pacific region of DWS, a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank’s asset management unit, chooses between 2030 and 2034. In his view, after China achieves a strong economic recovery in 2021, the economic growth rate may be It will stabilize in the healthy and benign mid-to-high-speed range. On the other hand, in the United States, the heavy debt accumulated due to the epidemic may drag the economic growth rate in the low-speed range for a long time.
“Nikkei Asia” quoted an economist from Bank of East Asia as saying: “China has controlled the epidemic well, which will boost consumer and business sentiment and support consumption and investment.”
The report also pointed out that for some time, there have been more and more speculations about when China will surpass the United States to become the world’s largest economy.
In December last year, the British think tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), stated that based on the fact that China is better at preventing and controlling the new crown epidemic than Western countries, China’s economy will surpass the United States faster than previously expected, or will To complete the “overtaking” of the United States in 2028, a full five years earlier than previously expected.
International institutions are optimistic about the future of China’s economy
On April 6, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest “World Economic Outlook Report” (hereinafter referred to as the report). It is estimated that China’s economy will grow by 8.4% in 2021, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the January forecast. The IMF also predicts that the global economy will grow by 6% in 2021.
Regarding China’s economic growth, the IMF stated in the report that China has successfully overcome the epidemic by adopting active measures and has returned to the economic level before the epidemic. Tobias Adrian, Director of the IMF’s Currency and Capital Markets Department, said that China’s economic recovery is far ahead of any country in the world.
In fact, the IMF forecasts China’s growth data of 8.4%, which is higher than my country’s GDP growth target set this year.On March 5 this year, the fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened. Premier Li Keqiang made a government work report, outlining the main goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan and this year’s main goals, and announced”Above 6%” economic growth target .
At that time, foreign media made many interpretations of “6%”, thinking that this number was “conservative”, “cautious”, “moderate” and so on. For example, Reuters quoted analysts in its report that China has set a moderate annual economic growth target and emphasized the need to create more urban job opportunities. “As the world’s second-largest economy, China plans to act cautiously after a year of being affected by the new crown epidemic.”
The Wall Street Journal also considers this a “relatively moderate” goal. One year after the new coronavirus hit the global economy, this goal reflects China’s optimism. The Nikkei Chinese website also explained that in the midst of the uncertainty of the world economy, China’s setting of “over 6%” seems to emphasize that this is the minimum.
Source | Observer Network
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