Article丨Tidal Business Review
Article丨Tidal Business Review
Not long ago, Xiaomi’s official website suddenly appeared many positions related to autonomous driving. It was an obvious signal that Xiaomi would also build a car. This is already the countless number of players on the car building track.
In the past two years, in addition to some traditional car companies, cross-border car manufacturing has also become popular. Real estate car manufacturing, Internet car manufacturing, express car manufacturing… I have to say that the gold mine of new energy vehicles allows all players to It’s like a rush.
However, no matter what kind of car you want to build or how big a “gold mine” you want to dig, you cannot do without the merchants who “sell shovels” to the gold diggers. In the field of new energy vehicles, Ningde era is the “shovel” businessman that auto companies can’t do without.
On the last day of May this year, CATL’s market value exceeded RMB 100 billion, making it the first listed company with a market capitalization of over RMB 1 trillion on the ChiNext—and this figure is equivalent to the market value of three auto companies such as BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor. with.
In the market value map of Chinese companies, this is the only hard-core technology company from manufacturing outside of finance, liquor, and the Internet.
Why is the Ningde era? Will such a wealth creation myth appear next? 01. Make a rich myth The success of the Ningde era is no accident. Currently, the three major businesses of CATL are power battery systems, energy storage systems and lithium battery materials. Among them, the power battery system is the main source of income in the Ningde era. As the most critical component of current new energy vehicles, power batteries are equivalent to the “heart” of the electric vehicle industry. It accounts for one-third of the cost of the entire vehicle. The cost, cruising range, safety and charging efficiency of a new energy vehicle are closely related to battery quality. Therefore, the Ningde era, which is above the tuyere of new energy vehicles, is undoubtedly on the best track, and it is foreseeable that in the short term, this dividend will continue for a long time. In addition, the rise of the CATL era cannot be separated from the boost of the BMW Group. Picture/Pexels In 2012, when BMW Brilliance was preparing for the first high-end pure electric vehicle “Zino 1E”, it finally decided to abandon BYD and chose to cooperate with the Ningde era, which was only one year old. Compared with BYD’s closed operation model of self-production and self-use, CATL adopts a completely different development approach, such as actively opening up supply, and taking into account both lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries. The open attitude has brought many opportunities for the Ningde era. CATL and BMW Group have jointly developed the “Zinoone 1E” power battery system, which is produced and manufactured by CATL. Since then, CATL has become the only battery supplier of the BMW Group in Greater China. With the help of the cooperation with BMW, CATL quickly opened the power battery market and became the first domestic power battery company to successfully enter the supplier system of international car companies. Currently, as the power battery supplier with the highest market share in the world, CATL has the broadest customer base in the industry. Not only are the core suppliers of world-renowned leading auto companies such as Tesla, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai, but also in the domestic market, CATL is also a major supplier of SAIC, FAW, Geely, Yutong, BAIC, Wei Lai, Xiaopeng and other car companies support power battery products. The huge customer network has brought huge profits to the Ningde era. Data show that from 2018 to 2020, CATL’s operating income was 29.61 billion yuan, 45.79 billion yuan, and 50.32 billion yuan, and net profits reached 3.387 billion yuan, 4.560 billion yuan, and 5.583 billion yuan, showing an upward trend year by year. In the first quarter of this year, CATL achieved operating income of 19.17 billion yuan and net profit of 1.952 billion yuan, an increase of more than 100%. In addition, from the stock price point of view, since its listing in 2018, CATL’s stock price has risen all the way, especially in the last year due to the significant increase in market demand for new energy vehicles. Compared with the listing, the stock price has risen by more than 16 times. A veritable white horse stock. Picture/Network From the perspective of market share, the development momentum of the Ningde era is also very rapid. Data shows that in 2019, the installed capacity of power batteries in the Ningde era accounted for 51.8% of the total installed capacity of 32.31GWh, ranking first for three consecutive years; the second-tier enterprise leader Even if BYD has the advantage of internal supply, its market share is only 1/3 of that of the Ningde era. In all respects, the CATL does match a trillion market capitalization, and the birth of such a company is also inseparable from factors such as timeliness (consumption upgrade), geographical advantages (good track), people and (own strength). It is worth noting that the Ningde era is still expanding this advantage. Public information shows that CATL has entered the field of travel in all aspects. In addition to power batteries, its investment areas include new energy vehicles, autonomous driving, charging piles and other industries. Picture/Network It can be seen that the ambition of the Ningde era is far from simple as a battery supplier. 02, the pattern is undecided Although no one can surpass the achievements of the CATL in the short term, it is not without opportunities for other car companies. Right now, the market for new energy vehicles is undergoing rapid changes, and the competition for new energy vehicles has entered the second half. In this upgrade competition, new energy vehicles are no longer just used as a means of transportation, but smart connected devices with different functions such as energy storage. This also means that companies will not only focus on the vertical supply chain of new energy vehicles, but also build an ecosystem with new energy vehicles as the core. The development of infrastructure, 5G networks, on-board operating systems and related applications for the interaction of new energy vehicles with grid energy will accelerate in the next 15 years. The upgrade and development of new energy vehicles will inevitably touch all aspects of the field, but in the entire industry chain, the most promising power battery companies are naturally. After all, no matter how the new energy vehicle changes and develops, as an energy storage device, the power battery is the most important component of an electric vehicle. With the advancement of technology, the requirements for the battery will continue to increase. In the second half of the new energy vehicle, how to solve the problem of the mileage and battery safety of the fuel truck has become the key. Whoever can take the lead in completing the reform will be able to seize the wind in the second half of the new energy vehicle. Of course, such a test must also be faced in the Ningde era. At present, the most widely used ternary lithium battery in new energy vehicles is generally made of positive electrode, separator, negative electrode, and then filled with electrolyte. The energy density of such a battery should be up to about 300Wh/kg, plus or minus. Not more than 20Wh/kg. If you want to increase the energy density to 350Wh/kg, you also need to place hopes on a new generation of lithium-ion batteries or solid-state batteries. Picture/Pexels In addition, the widely used lithium battery is also potentially dangerous. Once an internal or external short circuit occurs, the battery can release a large amount of heat in a very short period of time. The flammable liquid electrolyte will Is ignited, eventually causing the battery to catch fire or explode. The existing main methods to avoid spontaneous combustion are nothing more than adding flame retardants to the electrolyte, optimizing the BMS thermal management system, using ceramic coating and high temperature resistant diaphragms, and so on. However, these methods have not completely eradicated the safety hazards of the battery system. Therefore, the industry generally puts the future of battery development on solid-state batteries, but the current domestic solid-state battery development is still a long time away from mass production. CATL also stated that this time will be at least 2030. Therefore, from the current point of view, companies that have failed to grasp the initiative in this round of power batteries have set their sights on the track of the next generation of power batteries early. In the next ten years, whoever grabs solid-state batteries will Seize the opportunity to develop in the new energy automobile industry. In addition, the shortage of funds is also a thorny issue that major battery companies must face. As we all know, new energy vehicles are a very money-consuming field. At present, China’s subsidy policy for new energy has shifted from the most aggressive stage to a more moderate stage that is gradually being led by the market. Therefore, those car companies and manufacturers that rely on government subsidies to develop will have to choose to tighten their belts in the future. Data shows that when my country’s new energy subsidy policy was reduced in 2017, and in 2018, it fully retreated and launched the “dual points policy”, my country’s rapid growth of power batteries has also temporarily come to an end. At the same time, the growth rate of CATL has also dropped from a high of 90% to 38.8% in 2019, and then to 9.22% in 2020. It can be seen that for the Ningde era, the best era may have passed. Entering the second half of new energy vehicles with intensified industry changes and reduced government subsidies, the Ningde era will usher in new crises and challenges. 03. Who can win? As the saying goes, it is easy to fight the country, but it is difficult to keep the country. In addition to facing the pressure from the second half of the new energy vehicles, competitors are eyeing the market share, and the Ningde era is also not to be underestimated. According to the data, in 2019, domestic power battery companies are ranked as follows: Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan High-Tech, Lishen Battery, Yiwei Lithium, AVIC Lithium, Times SAIC, Funeng Technology, BAK Battery, and Xinwanda. Judging from the current industry rankings, battery manufacturers are divided into several echelons. The first echelon is the Ningde era and BYD. From 2016 to the present, they have basically stabilized in the top two positions and already possess a relatively monopolistic position. The rest is the second echelon. As of April 2021, among the top 5 domestic power battery companies in terms of installed capacity, in addition to CATL and BYD, they also include AVIC Lithium, LG Chem, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, all of which are considered second echelon players. Its market share is also increasing. In fact, before 2016, BYD had been the sales champion in China’s power battery market. The turning point began in 2017, when CATL relied on its ternary battery to overtake, and BYD has become the “second in the millennium”. But in March last year, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu launched a high-profile blade battery that passed the acupuncture test at an online press conference. This battery focuses on safety and low cost. The battery will also be fully matched to the latest flagship model BYD Han. The trend of counterattack. Picture/Pexels And Guoxuan Hi-Tech is still a little bit behind the two. In addition, AVIC Lithium has not yet landed in the capital market, but data shows that in 2020, AVIC Lithium’s power battery installed capacity will rise to 3.55GWh, with a market share of 5.6%, and its ranking will rise from 6th to 4th. Its own development is also relatively rapid. From the perspective of solid-state battery research, among domestic power battery companies, Qingtao Energy, Ningde Times, Ganfeng Lithium, Huineng, Beijing Weilan, and Kanai New Energy are all at the forefront of solid-state battery research and development. It is understood that Qingtao Energy has developed an all-solid-state battery with a single energy density of 430Wh/kg and a mass production stage of more than 300Wh/g; CATL is focusing on polymer solid-state lithium metal batteries and sulfide-based solid-state batteries. All research; Ganfeng Lithium’s first-generation solid-state lithium battery R&D pilot production line with an annual output of 100 million watt-hours has been completed and trial production; Weilan New Energy held a solid-state battery project in Jiangsu in 2019, and it is planned to be completed in 2020. Produce 0.1GWh solid-state battery production line; Huineng Technology said that it will start trial production of all-solid-state batteries in 2023, and mass-produce all-solid-state batteries in 2024. On the one hand, car companies are also struggling to enter the battery competition field. On July 29 last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced on Weibo that the upcoming power battery business will not only be provided for his own use, but will also be sold like BYD. In addition, Volkswagen, BMW, Geely, Changan, Great Wall, SAIC and other traditional automakers as well as new car manufacturers have their own power battery investment layout or production line planning, through the establishment of joint ventures, self-built batteries Plants and other methods have launched a deep layout in the field of power batteries, and even have a timetable for mass production of solid-state batteries. It is not surprising that OEMs vigorously deploy power batteries. Although judging from the current situation, the Ningde era is still far ahead. But temporary technological leadership does not mean leading forever. With the continuous emergence of new technologies, the disappearance of policy subsidies, and the catching up of competitors, the battery industry will eventually usher in a major reshuffle. The big waves wash away the sand, and the sinker is gold; the wind rags and the victor is king. Under the fierce competition, we will wait and see whether the “Ningde Times” version of the miracle of wealth creation can continue. For more exciting content, follow Titanium Media WeChat ID (ID: taimeiti), or download Titanium Media App
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