Currency under $ 1.20 How weak is the euro going to be?
Status: 06/18/2021 2:09 p.m.
In the USA there are signs of a turnaround in interest rates, in Europe the key interest rate will probably remain low for a long time to come. That has been burdening the euro for days. How much will the common currency still become cheaper? The prospect of rising interest rates in the US has recently weighed on the euro. The common currency fell in the past few days from rates at 1.22 to below 1.19 US dollars. Experts cited the interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as an explanation for this strong movement. After years of zero interest rate policy, the American monetary authorities had promised interest rate hikes, at least for the longer term. Accordingly, two rate hikes can be expected by 2023.
First of all, the Fed will in all probability cut back its security purchases later in the year, with which it had pushed down long-term interest rates on the bond market in recent years. The expectation of an economic recovery with rising inflation rates alone had pushed the yield on ten-year US government bonds up from around 0.5 percent to just under 1.8 percent since the summer of last year.
Long-term rates still negative
Yields on the German stock market have also risen sharply in recent months, albeit at a significantly lower level to date. The yield on ten-year Bunds is still around minus 0.2 percent. In the low, the interest rate was only around minus 0.67 percent. Despite rising inflation rates in Germany and the euro area, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt unwilling to be, to follow the central bank colleagues in Washington and to consider at least less security purchases in the near future. In May, the inflation rate in the euro zone was 2.0 percent, slightly above the central bank’s price stability target. In Germany they moved Producer prices even rose 7.2 percent in May compared to the previous year and therefore stronger than it has been for almost 13 years. The prices were driven by the sharply rising prices of so-called intermediate goods.
Despite rising inflation Why the ECB is not raising interest rates
Inflation is increasing in many European countries.
Bundesbank boss for the end of the bond purchases
“In the long run this will work noticeable in consumer prices The economists at Commerzbank said: “A central bank in crisis mode, which, as ECB President Christine Lagarde said in her last press conference, does not even talk about whether a reduction in bond purchases might be necessary. appears well behind the curve in comparison. “In the opinion of the experts, the monetary authorities have thus missed the entry into the exit from the zero interest rate policy.
An opinion that is also shared by the President of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann. Weidmann has spoken out in favor of an early end to the trillion dollar bond purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB) after the pandemic. The focus is on the purchase program called “PEPP” the monetary guardian. “When the emergency for which the PEPP was created is over, it must be ended,” Weidmann told the “Handelsblatt”. But whether Weidmann will prevail is unclear. There are thus signs for the near future that the dollar could retain or even expand its interest rate advantage.
Trillions for the economy Is the US economy threatened with overheating?
Inflation in the United States is even higher than in Germany.
German exporters benefit
For German vacationers who want to spend their free time outside the euro area, that would be bad news – they would have to pay more for foreign currency. The export-oriented German economy, on the other hand, is benefiting from the trend. Last year, just 36 percent of German exports went to the countries of the euro area. And even if you include EU countries with their own currencies such as Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, which has since left the country, the share of exports last year was just over half.
A good sixth of exports even went directly to the USA. In fact, the impact of the dollar rate on German exports is likely to be significantly greater. Because some international currencies are directly linked to the US dollar. These include, for example, the Saudi riyal or the diram of the United Arab Emirates. Both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are countries that traditionally buy and import many German products with the money they earn from oil exports.
Prices rise by five percent Highest US inflation since 2008
In the USA, consumer prices have risen as sharply as they did almost 13 years ago – something that car buyers in particular are feeling.
Dollar weakness later in the year?
If the US dollar gains strength, German companies have two options. Either they reap additional profits with unchanged prices. Or they react with price cuts in order to gain market share – both attractive prospects for companies.
But at this point in time it seems questionable how long the euro will actually continue to decline. Because for autumn and winter, experts like those at Commerzbank are expecting inflationary dynamics to decline again in the USA. Then “the US dollar euphoria will soon be over”
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