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The Fed’s “turning to the eagle” will trigger a 10%-20% callback in US stocks. After retail investors rushed into the market, might it lead to a crash?


From the Financial Association, reported by Jinshi

A team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, pointed out in a recent report that so far this year, retail investors have invested approximately US$485 billion in U.S. equity funds, and since mid-May, retail investors’ investment momentum in individual stocks and options has regained momentum. accelerate.

At the end of 2020, JP Morgan Chase estimated that retail investors will inject 500 billion U.S. dollars into the U.S. stock market throughout 2021. However, the Panigirtzoglou report recently stated that if the current purchase rate continues, the number may soar to $1 trillion.

However, the headwinds of US stocks are coming quietly, and the US stocks adjustment may be underway.

After the Fed released the “hawk” signal last week, the Dow Jones Index recorded its biggest weekly decline since October 2020. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi recently warned that the Fed’s “eagle” will trigger a 10% to 20% correction in US stocks.

The Federal Reserve issued an interest rate resolution last week, still deciding to keep the policy interest rate near zero and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, but it raised the two major managed interest rates. In addition, the interest rate dot chart released by the Federal Reserve suggests that as the economy recovers rapidly from the impact of the new crown epidemic and inflation rises, officials are expected to raise interest rates twice before the end of 2023, much earlier than expected in March.

Zandi hinted that in this context, the US stock market adjustment may already be in progress, because investors have begun to panic.

The Dow Jones index just set its biggest weekly decline since October 2020, down 3.45%. The S&P 500 index last week was the worst since the end of February, and the Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, also fell last week.

Unlike the sharp decline in US stocks in the past few years, Zandi does not expect the stock market to recover quickly this time because market valuations are already very high. He expects it may take a year to resume the original rally. Although Zandi issued a warning to the market, he believes that the economy will avoid a recession because this recession is mainly due to risks caused by excessive asset prices, rather than serious fundamental problems. Zandi has been warning of inflation for months. At the beginning of March, Zandi asserted that inflation would be “far ahead”, and investors did not recognize and fully grasp the risks. Zandi said that inflation is still an issue affecting stock market and bond investors. Zandi believes that it is unlikely that the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will continue to fall:

“Considering the current situation, I would not expect the yield to remain at 1.5% in the long term.”

Stocks and bonds are not the only risky assets that attract Zendi’s attention. Zandi also believes that the sell-off of commodities and cryptocurrencies is brewing more trouble. In addition, in the case of rising mortgage interest rates, he is worried about the sustainability of the booming real estate market. Coincidentally, Micheal Burry, the prototype of “Big Short” and a well-known hedge fund manager, also issued a warning to Bitcoin a few days ago, saying that retail investors who buy “group stocks” and cryptocurrencies are about to usher in devastating losses. In addition to holding stocks, Burry also issued a warning to cryptocurrency enthusiasts to borrow money to buy their favorite currency unscrupulously. He wrote on Twitter:

“Like most things, the problem with cryptocurrency is leverage. If you don’t know how much leverage there is in cryptocurrency, then you don’t know anything about cryptocurrency.”

According to CoinDesk data, after Bitcoin broke through $63,000 and hit a record high in mid-April this year, it has fallen by more than 40% so far. Ethereum has also fallen sharply after its surge, starting from the record high set in May. It has fallen by more than 45%. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision has caused turmoil in US stocks, and the sell-off of commodities and cryptocurrencies is brewing more trouble. We return to the beginning of the message and cannot help asking, will the momentum of retail investment throughout 2021 continue? New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) President Stacey Cunningham recently stated that the price of meme stocks (referring to stocks that retail investors are keen to buy on social media) may be distorted because most of these stocks are traded outside the US public exchange. Place. Cunningham said that the price formation of meme stock does not truly reflect the relationship between supply and demand. Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman also said that meme stock has brought some benefits because this trend has attracted younger investors to enter the market, but warned that the dramatic rise in stocks such as AMC and Gamestop could be the “cause of disaster.” Gorman believes that the huge returns that some meme stocks have received in a short period of time are not healthy, and these gains are “to some extent the root of the disaster.”